The Responsibility Project^®. Exploring what it means to do the right thing

Gambling on Our Future

5 Comments

November 3, 2008 by Kathy McManus

There’s a financial market for everything, it seems. 

Including your vote. 

As stock markets around the world continue to nose-dive, an unusual futures market called Intrade is heating up, with global investors focused on one bet: the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. 

Unlike typical financial markets where profits are tied to a company’s growth, Intrade’s profits rise and fall on the results of political, cultural, and geological events--including weather. Traders buy and sell “contracts” that function like stocks.

But it’s not just investors who are keen on Intrade. Pundits and politicians routinely analyze it as they follow the McCain and Obama campaigns, trying to determine the probable winner before the actual vote. According to Congressional Quarterly Today, “experts have found that the Intrade market is generally more accurate in predicting the outcome of major events than other leading indicators, including public opinion polls.” 

However, scholars of so-called predictive markets issued a caveat about Intrade: “The relatively small scale of the market and its lack of outside regulation could leave the system vulnerable to unscrupulous investors.” 

Sure enough, a rogue trader on Intrade seems to have been responsible for mimicking Wall Street maneuvers by buying suspiciously large purchases of McCain futures to boost his standing in the race, while selling off blocks of Obama futures to lower the market’s predictions of his chances of winning. The manipulation left pollsters uncertain. 

Tell us what you think: Does betting on political races irresponsibly sway votes? Is it more responsible to put your money where your mouth is and vote?

5 Comments

What do you think? Leave a comment

• November 3, 2008 by Pasquale Bottiglieri

  There are, apparently, people who have made their fortunes developing and implementing ways to predict and, absolutely, direct the decision making of large groups of people. They are called "Spin Doctors". Based on what I have seen and experienced, specifically through the course of this current presidential campaign, I seriously doubt that honor, integrity, ethics or any form of respect for human values play any role whatsoever in the business of putting "spin" on current issues in the process of getting a candidate elected. As we have seen, there is a large population of people who see nothing wrong with betting on fighting dogs, otherwise affectionate animals that have been conditioned by mistreatment to fight to please their owners. Why would betting on the outcome of political contests not be equally popular? Why would anyone be surprised if the information concerning betting patterns was used to to sway voters one way or another? Thinking independently and voting as a result of that thinking is a function of real freedom and I suggest we all keep that in mind in evaluating the contrived data we are being fed every day.

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  • July 25, 2010 by abjames

    some people think a black president is a joke well he beter than any we had before likes Snipes said on one movie bet on black strong people stay in the fight I had a heart atack coma twice lost kiddnees twice much more I still looking for work going to school we fight bet on black if you not smart to see who wants to fix this usa chose who going to get jobs stay with the winner you got not because old usa trust white men 400 years we learned not a thing!

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• November 3, 2008 by Cecily

  Campaigns for major offices have become circuses, and campaign expenses have increased exponentially over 50 years, even allowing for inflation. This current situation is only marginally more ethical than a "betting pool".

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• November 3, 2008 by Stephen R

  I see no problem with betting on a political race (so long as, as with any gambling, you have the money to spare), but it is wrong to play the system in a way that deceptively manipulates the stakes.

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• November 4, 2008 by LANDON J. JONES (NYC)

  I am so forever grateful for being born in Minneapolis, MN and raised/educated/experienced, etc. Throughout the several dozens of the 81+ local, statewide, county, city, state and federal (outsourced) service jurisdictional regions in employed and contracted service professional & personal service work before I formally moved to Hudson and NY counties in Oct, 2002 (and the surrounding local NJ/NY-approx. 5 county regions with more residents. Companies (public and private) so that I could continue to sharpen my skills and abilities to be of maximal global service at the heart of world capitalism (so nice, they named it twice - New York, NY). Sincerely, Landon J. Jones

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